东岳论丛

中美既互为重要的贸易伙伴，又时常发生贸易摩擦。分析中国加入WTO以来中美农产品贸易发展历程和中美农产品贸易格局演变可为中国农产品贸易高质量发展提供参考。利用2001—2022年中美农产品贸易数据，研究发现：2001—2022年间，中美农产品贸易逆差呈现凸显、激增、回落和再激增的趋势特征。在逆差状态下，中美农产品贸易又呈现紧密结合趋势，高附加值农产品以产业内贸易为主，大宗农产品以产业间贸易为主，并且两国大宗农产品贸易结构的互补性越来越强。中国农产品的出口竞争优势在不断提升，但是美国农产品的出口竞争优势一直保持相对较高水平，中国农产品国际市场占有率的上升速度仍相对缓慢，由农业贸易大国向农业贸易强国转变还须不断提升竞争优势。中国出口农产品的多元化程度高于美国，出口农产品风险分散度始终大于美国，贸易风险相对较小。未来中国应在利用好WTO农业规则的同时，加强与美国农业协会组织等的沟通合作，发挥农业在中美贸易摩擦中的调节器作用。继续深入推进农业供给侧结构性改革，促进农业高质量发展，提升自身化解危机的能力、满足国内消费升级的供应能力和增强农产品出口的竞争实力。寻求更广泛的农产品国际贸易合作，积极同美国以外的其他国家建立合作关系，拓宽农产品进出口渠道。

China and the United States are both important trading partners and often experience trade frictions.This article uses the agricultural trade data between China and the United States from 2001 to 2022 to analyze the development process and evolution of the agricultural trade pattern between China and the United States since China's accession to the WTO.Research has found that from 2001 to 2022,the trade deficit in agricultural products between China and the United States has shown a trend of prominence,surge,decline,and further surge.Under the state of deficit,the trade of agricultural products between China and the United States shows a trend of close integration.In a state of deficit,the trade of agricultural products between China and the United States is showing a trend of close integration.High value-added agricultural products are mainly intra industry trade,while bulk agricultural products are mainly inter industry trade.Moreover,the complementarity of the trade structure of bulk agricultural products between the two countries is becoming stronger.The export competitive advantage of Chinese agricultural products is constantly improving,but the export competitive advantage of American agricultural products has always maintained a relatively high level.The growth rate of China's international market share of agricultural products is still relatively slow,and the transformation from an agricultural trading power to an agricultural trading power still needs to continuously enhance its competitive advantage.The degree of diversification of China's exported agricultural products is higher than that of the United States,and the risk diversification of exported agricultural products has always been greater than that of the United States,with relatively small trade risks.In the future,China should strengthen communication and cooperation with organizations such as the American Agricultural Association while making good use of WTO agricultural rules,and play the role of agriculture as a regulator in the trade friction between China and the United States.Continue to deepen the supply side structural reform of agriculture,promote high-quality development of agriculture,enhance China's ability to resolve crises,meet domestic consumption upgrading supply capacity,and enhance the competitiveness of agricultural product exports.Seeking broader international trade cooperation in agricultural products,actively establishing cooperative relationships with countries outside the United States,and expanding channels for the import and export of agricultural products.